Jake Paul and Mike Tyson are about to step into the squared circle for what could be the most-watched boxing match in combat sports history.
That’s right, with their fight airing live on Netflix with no extra charge to its over 280 million subscribers, it’s well within the realm of possibility that Paul vs. Tyson shatters modern viewership records. At the very least, when you head to the water cooler (do people still do this?) on Monday, there’s a strong chance your co-workers will have heard about “that crazy Tyson fight” that happened Friday night.
With all of that said… who exactly is this fight for?
Paul has made the most of his transition from social media huckster to influencer boxer, scoring high-profile fights with everyone from Nate Diaz to Tommy Fury to Anderson Silva to Mike Perry, and has now caught in his net one of the most popular boxers ever, “Iron” Mike Tyson.
Yes, Tyson is back and competing in a professionally sanctioned bout for the first time in over 19 years (it should be noted that he stepped into the ring with Roy Jones Jr. for an exhibition bout in 2020). He and Paul were first scheduled to fight on July 20, but health problems on Tyson’s side postponed the bout until Nov. 15, and in between those dates, Tyson actually celebrated his 58th birthday. That’s 31 years older than Paul.
Again… what are we doing here?
MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Jed Meshew, and Damon Martin scratched their noggins to figure out the best and healthiest way to approach Paul vs. Tyson if you’re one of the many planning to tune in even if you don’t know why.
1. Paint the best possible outcome for Friday.
Martin: A compelling fight that doesn’t look like a 27-year-old fighting a 58-year-old.
That’s setting a dramatically low bar but the reality is no one knows for certain what to expect in this fight. At his best, Jake Paul is a prospect with some good boxing skills and huge knockout power but at his worst, he’s still largely a novice without any real experience against top level opponents.
Then there’s Tyson, who in his prime was arguably the most feared fighter in the history of combat sports but that feels like a lifetime ago with his last win coming all the way back in 2003. Jake Paul was six years old at the time.
So what exactly defines compelling?
Let’s be honest the fear factor for this fight almost entirely surrounds Tyson because it’s just not realistic to expect somebody nearing 60 to still be fighting at a high level. Perhaps he’s really found the fountain of youth, and if he can manage to knock Paul down even once or just find a way to stick around for all eight rounds without taking too much damage, that’s a win in my book.
Meshew: Everyone has fun and no one gets seriously injured.
With over 20 years of combat sports fandom, I’ve seen a lot of stuff, and in general, I try not to clutch my pearls about most things. At the end of the day, this is two consenting adults and who am I to tell them how to live their lives? But this one is really on the boundary of acceptability for me, and truth be told, it’s beyond.
Sure, Jake Paul isn’t within three zip codes of where Mike Tyson was in his prime, but Tyson ain’t in his prime. In fact, he’s about three decades away from it. This is akin to Hall of Fame football players trying to put the pads back on to play in the XFL — absurd. Tyson had a freaking medical emergency this year! He is damn near a senior citizen and even the training footage they’re releasing to show “Mike’s still got it” is concerning. No doubt, Tyson looks like he’s in terrific shape for 58, but he very much looks like an old man.
There is no doubt about the outcome of this “fight.” The only doubt is in how bad it will be. The best case scenario is that both Tyson and Paul realize what this is and have a glorified sparring session for eight rounds where all the money is made, egos are stroked, and we can get out of there without feeling gross.
Lee: Speak for yourselves, fellas, if I’m going to dream up a best-case scenario for this one, I’m dreaming big:
Tyson knocks the absolute stuffing out of Paul.
Nothing personal against “The Problem Child” (though there are plenty of reasons to dislike Paul, so pick one), and Tyson is certainly no saint himself, but Tyson reaching down deep to land one last punch of doom on Paul’s chin would create unfathomable ripples in the timeline. This wouldn’t just be the biggest story in boxing of 2024, it would arguably be the biggest story in all of sports if Tyson put Paul down for the count.
I get it. Ideally, neither man ends up getting seriously injured for the sake of a freakshow fight that’s more a test of Netflix’s live streaming capabilities than an athletic contest that anyone should be taking seriously. But this is a pro bout. This is a fight. And, even at damn near 60, this is the always unpredictable Mike Tyson.
The heavyweight legend’s 2020 spar with Roy Jones was unexpectedly charming, and if we see something akin to that, I can’t imagine too many fans complaining. They’ll also forget about it by Saturday, once UFC 309 pre-show programming begins.
If Tyson somehow destroys Paul, though? Let’s just say Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic will have a tough act to follow.
2. And what’s the worst possible outcome?
Lee: I’ll leave the more morbid predictions for my colleagues, but I think one of the worst things that could happen is that Friday’s event is such a big hit that we get a flood of Netflix combat sports specials in the same vein.
Look how saturated the streaming network has become with comedy specials. Even if you’re a fan of this kind of content, which is uploaded to Netflix on a regular basis, I imagine there are plenty of subscribers rolling their eyes at the slew of standups bombarding their screens whenever they log in.
Now instead of those, imagine execs trying to tap into the novelty bout market. More Jake Paul vs. (insert legend here) fights. More over-the-hill boxers being thrust into the ring with the promise of a massive payday. Complete nonsense fights featuring influencers with millions of followers named, like, “X44Reggie” or something. All at the touch of a button.
On the other hand, if this leads to a partnership between Netflix and Fight Circus, then I take it all back.
Meshew: Death. I do not say that lightly, but it’s a realistic possibility.
In combat sports, fighters court death constantly. They are always talking about “being willing to die in the ring” and in general there’s an understanding that the profession of fighting is trading in health for money. Usually that manifests in terrible, long-term consequences (which Tyson already shows signs of) but fairly regularly it also results directly in death. Literally hundreds of people have died in the ring, averaging 13 deaths per year in boxing. And in most instances, those are matchups between equally capable fighters in their relative youth. That is not at all what’s going on here.
Because high-profile deaths in combat sports are rare (and thankfully non-existent in the UFC) most fans do not really think of it. But the reason they are less frequent is because there was a concerted effort to make this incredibly dangerous sport as safe as possible. Putting a near 60-year-old guy in their with a man 30 years his junior who hits incredibly hard, that’s tempting fate. And the combat sports gods are bastards. You never want to tempt them.
There’s an old adage that “you don’t play boxing” and I cannot help but think that’s exactly what is happening on Friday. A bunch of people with absolutely no moral imperative other than making as much money as possible are playing a dangerous game. I sincerely hope it doesn’t come back in a terrible, tragic way.
Martin: Tyson being carried out of the ring.
Not to be overdramatic, but it’s impossible not to think about a scenario like that when a 58-year-old fighter is competing professionally for the first time in nearly two decades. Yes, Tyson is undergoing medical testing to get cleared to fight, but let’s not forget this is the same Texas commission that sanctioned Dada 5000 to face Kimbo Slice back in 2016 and then afterwards Dada 5000 suffered cardiac arrest and kidney failure before being rushed to the hospital following his collapse in the cage.
Yes, Tyson looks like he’s in phenomenal shape for his age and he still hits like a truck but this isn’t the same guy who went scorched earth on Michael Spinks in 1988 and, truth be told, he’s not even the same person who effectively spent eight rounds sparring with Roy Jones Jr. back in 2020.
No amount of testing can guarantee that Tyson won’t take an overhand right from Paul, end up face-down on the canvas, causing every single concern about this fight even happening in the first place to come bubbling up to the surface. Obviously, nobody wants to see Tyson get seriously hurt, but if you’re looking for the worst possible outcome, that’s it.
3. Should Jake Paul win, what’s next for “The Problem Child?”
Martin: It’s so hard to figure out what exactly Paul really wants for his boxing career.
One minute he’s calling out Conor McGregor and Alex Pereira and the next he’s spouting off about becoming a world champion in the next couple of years. Here’s a hint: You’re not going to win a legitimate title beating MMA superstars in the boxing ring.
But for all his talk about legitimacy, Paul has shown us time and time again that he’s much more about spectacle than sport — and that’s totally OK, by the way. His couple of fights against journeymen boxers generated little interest, so Paul has to recognize that as much as he brings as an “A” side, people aren’t going to care to watch unless there’s at least a somewhat compelling “B” side.
So the answer here is Paul finally faces KSI.
Outside of fighting his brother Logan Paul, that’s pretty much the final boss when it comes to the influencer boxing scene. KSI has the name, he has the draw, and there’s so much disdain between him and Paul that it’s actually a fight worth watching.
Lee: It’s MMA time, baby!
PFL just delivered a couple of highly anticipated fights in the Francis Ngannou return and Cris Cyborg taking on Larissa Pacheco, plus they’re making this year’s championship event a free show with a subscription to ESPN+ as opposed to the usual pay-per-view price. While they’re in the habit of giving the people what they want, it’s time to throw Paul in the SmartCage.
Who he’ll fight, I don’t rightly know. And I’m not sure it matters. Paul, on his own, is not going to break attendance or viewership records, but he will bring a demographic to PFL that they’re sorely in need of. Not to get all “how do you do, fellow kids?” here, but I don’t know if the league has been much of an attraction for the younger generation of fight fans and that’s still a group Paul has some pull with.
Selfishly, I’m curious to see how Paul’s work ethic, youth, and resource advantages translate to MMA. This business loves a good heel, and if Paul is even half decent at grappling or throwing the occasional teep, he could be a legitimate feather in PFL’s cap.
It’s by no means a lock that he ever crosses over, but I’m excited at the possibility of Paul throwing caution to the wind and seeing how far he can go with six months of sprawl training.
Meshew: I think Damon is right, it’s probably KSI.
I do not care how often Paul says it, the man is not concerned with legacy. I’m not even sure he can define what that means, or what he means by it. Paul is interested almost exclusively in attention and money, and he probably only cares about the attention insofar as it leads to more money (and to be clear, that’s not a knock on him, it is an extremely pragmatic away to approach life).
Paul dabbled in the “real boxer” matchups, but it seems he’s realized that there was simply not much of a market for watching him beat scrubs no one has ever heard of before. Jake Paul fans do not care about him boxing (they care about being entertained and that’s not entertaining) and MMA fans (the other big base of viewership for these things) don’t care if he’s not fighting someone they know.
Which leads us back to KSI. These two are the godfathers of the influencer boxing scene and a fight between them has been talked about for years. At this point, it’s delayed so long it’s maybe past due already. Do the thing boys and then we can see what happens when the logical endpoint of everything finally arrives.
